Climate Change and Its Further Impact on Maritime Security Interests of Asia-Pacific States

Oleh : Kapten Laut (P) Rasyid Al Hafiz, MMP Candidate, ANCORS (Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security), University of Wollongong, Australia

Introduction

The impact of climate change such as more droughts, more floods, more strong storms, and more heat waves¹ has been considered by mostly states throughout the world as one of new security concerns. Australia, for example, beside proliferation of weapon mass destruction and international terrorism, its government also considered these impacts in its strategy outlook². Undoubtedly, climate change causes threats over the supply of energy, food and water³. These impacts, obviously, could be pose further impact such as marine environmental security, unlawful acts at sea and the submerging of coastlines⁴. It is believed that these further impacts affect the main attributes of the sea, namely the sea as a resource, the sea as a medium of transportation, the sea as an area of dominion, and the sea as an environment⁵.

The comprehensive maritime security interests of Asia-Pacific states especially related to the marine environmental security, maritime boundaries, territorial disputes and the secured port and ship, might be threatened by further impacts of climate change. This paper analyze how the climate change might affect the comprehensive maritime security interests of Asia-Pacific states. The first section of this paper explains an understanding of climate change and the second section goes on to its impact over the Asia-Pacific region and the last section discusses the possible further impacts of climate change on Asia-Pacific states’ maritime security interests.

Understanding Climate Change

In some countries, like Australia, people are very interested in a weather forecast, meanwhile in Indonesia; people commonly do not care about the weather. This phenomenon is caused by their geographical location, on one hand, Australia situated in more challenging region where experiencing four seasons, on the other hand, Indonesia situated in the less one where experiencing only two seasons.

Nowadays, people throughout the world are still confused in determining definition of weather or climate.
The climate system is a complex, interactive system consisting of the atmosphere, land surface, snow and ice, oceans and other bodies of water, and living things. The atmospheric component of the climate system most obviously characterises climate; climate is often defined as ‘average weather’. Climate is usually described in terms of the mean and variability of temperature, precipitation and wind over a period of time, ranging from months to millions of years (the classical period is 30 years)⁶.
It is easier for common people just to say that the climate is average weather and climate forecast is long-range weather forecasts⁷. However, people across the world commonly still have the same confusion related to the climate and weather forecast. The question, then, arises among them, how scientists can foresee climate 50 years from now when they cannot forecast the nest week weather⁸.

It is believed that the climate is changing and then examining this changing is challenging. The worldwide average surface temperature, in the past century, has risen by 0.74 ºC⁹. The observed raise in average temperatures is extensive around the world, with rising trends recorded on all continents and in the oceans¹⁰. Examining this change is very challenging because monitoring continuously the Earth’s climate system and oceans and then studying deeply the influence of greenhouse gases requires an expensive cost¹¹, hard work, expertise and passion to save the world. That is why climate change makes the challenge in all development more complicated¹², especially development in developing countries¹³.

In this paper, the definition of climate change used is the definition used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) although the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) also stated in its convention. According to IPCC the definition of climate change is any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity¹⁴. Whereas in Framework Convention on Climate Change, climate change refers to a change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods¹⁵.

Generally, effects of climate change are already visible in higher average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting snow and ice, and rising sea levels¹⁶. It is undoubtedly that these are rising more rapidly than estimated at least 1800 years¹⁷. For example, the global average sea level rose by close to 20 centimetres between 1870 and 2007, it rose at an average of 1.7 millimetres per year during the 20th century, and 3.4 millimetres per year from 1993 to 2007¹⁸. This trend was mainly caused by two factors. The first was an increase of volume of sea water cause by thermal expansion of the ocean and the second, the melting of glaciers and ice caps around the world¹⁹.

Impacts of Climate Change in Asia Pacific

Several system, sectors and regions are likely²⁰ to be particularly affected by climate change. According to IPCC, there are five general impacts on system and sectors, namely (1) damage at terrestrial, coastal and marine ecosystems, (2) less of water resources in some dry regions at mid altitudes, (3) harvest failing of agriculture in low altitudes because of lack of water, (4) low-lying coastal systems damage, and (5) low human health status in crowded population²¹. The number (1) and (4) impacts are related to the marine environmental security whereas the rest are related to human being itself. It means that the impacts of climate change affect both human and environment.

Moreover, the impacts of climate change over the Asia-Pacific region is specifically divided in to three subregions, firstly Asia, secondly, Australia and New Zealand and lastly small islands in Pacific²². In Asia, especially Coastal areas in South, East and South-East Asia, will be at utmost risk due to increased flooding from the sea and, in some megadeltas, flooding from the rivers²³. For example, projected sea-level rise could flood the residence of millions of people living in the low lying areas of South, South-east and East-Asia such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, India and China²⁴. In addition, in some developing countries, the risk of starvation is projected to remain very high²⁵. According to OECD, by 2020, an additional 49-million people are predicted to be at risk of hunger in Asia²⁶. Climate change also will affect sustainable development in developing countries in Asia, as it adds to the pressure on natural resources and the environment associated with urbanization, industrialization and economic development²⁷.

The impacts of climate change in Australia and New Zealand, the second subregion, are significant loss of biodiversity in the Great Barrier Reef and Queensland Wet Tropics, water security problems by 2010 in southern and eastern Australia and in northland and eastern New Zealand, and sea-level rise risks, storms, and coastal flooding in areas such as Cairns and South-east Queensland in Australia and Northland to Bay of Plenty in New Zealand²⁸. The third subregion is small islands in Pacific; these islands are vulnerable to the effects of climate change, especially caused by sea-level rise and extreme events. For example, in low-lying islands of Vanuatu, a one-meter rise in the sea level could result in the loss of 75 percent of islands. Moreover, the disappearance of some or all islands will clearly have serious implications on the construction of sovereignty²⁹ and sovereign rights.

Further Impacts of Climate Change on Maritime Security Interests of Asia Pacific States

It is arguable that this century is Asia-Pacific century³⁰. Australian Minister of Foreign Affairs said that
The Asia-Pacific region will fast become the world’s centre of gravity.” The rise of China, ________ the rise of India, the weight of the ASEAN economies combined, the great potential of Indonesia, the enduring economic strengths of Japan and South Korea, must also acknowledged³¹.
Because of this, it is inevitable that all Asia-Pacific states always fight for their interests, especially maritime security interests³².

It is arguable that talking about maritime security interests means talking about seaborne trade, the use of sea as an important food source, economic reliance on the sea by many coastal communities, environmentally fragile marine ecosystems and the sea as a source of political disputes³³. One of the main causes of these interests is a complex Asia-Pacific regional maritime geography that includes semi-enclosed seas, archipelagos, chokepoints, territorial disputes, overlapping maritime zones and undelimited maritime boundaries³⁴.

Climate change impacts as mentioned in the previous section dealing with maritime security interests could be pose further impact such as marine environmental security, unlawful acts at sea and the submerging of coastlines. These further impacts might directly and indirectly affect the maritime security interests of Asia-Pacific States in three situations.

The first situation is when climate change causes the damage at marine environment especially marine ecosystem. This further impact does not affect directly maritime security interests on human side but affects directly marine ecosystem structure and function, species’ ecological interactions, and species’ geographical ranges, with predominantly negative consequences for biodiversity, and ecosystem goods and services³⁵. For instance, climate change also will have direct impacts on the Great Barrier Reef through increased water temperature, increased sea level, increased severity of storms and cyclones, ocean acidification, changed rainfall and runoff, changes to the El Niño Southern Oscillation³⁶. This impact can pose a further impact on marine ecosystem if the authority does not take an appropriate response, as well as other marine ecosystems around the coast of Asia-Pacific region.

The second situation is when the impact of climate change directly is being felt by human being associated with their basic needs such as food, water and source of energy and less capability to adapt this situation. For example, in least developed countries, like Afghanistan³⁷, even this country emit relatively small amounts of greenhouse gases rather than developing countries but its people felt climate change bigger than countries which are the source of greenhouse gases³⁸. In addition, many people of this country becoming environmental refugees³⁹. However this impact could pose a further impact when people of state which cannot adapt climate change acting like perpetrators try to get their need in fast way such as piracy in shipping⁴⁰ includes the acts of armed robbery, theft, and hijacking a ship or even acting like terrorists. They might carry out offenses⁴¹ by using the sea as media and targeting ports and ships. This is definitely affecting maritime security interests of Asia-Pacific states which are most of them are developing countries and most exposed and less resilient to climate hazards⁴².

The third situation when climate change continues to contribute to the retreat, advance, and in the case of low-lying islands, complete disappearance of coastlines, it poses potentially critical questions for the sovereignty and sovereign rights of coastal states over their maritime jurisdiction zones⁴³. For example, in small islands developing states (SIDS) in Asia-Pacific region, if their coastlines are disappear, it means that their baselines⁴⁴ determined that used as the base for claiming maritime zones are also disappearing. This further impact of climate change will affect maritime security interests of these states especially in claiming their maritime jurisdiction and carrying out law enforcement at their maritime zones. Moreover, if this situation happens over the disputed area, the new problem of maritime boundaries delimitation will arise. For example, in the case of Okinotorishima island which remains in dispute between Japan and China⁴⁵. The Japanese government has been making efforts to keep the island above the sea level by constructing circular blocks of steel and concrete around them⁴⁶. However, China does not consider this island as stated in Law of the Sea Convention (LOSC) but consider it as an artificial island⁴⁷.

Conclusion

All in all, climate change has become one of the considerations by all states in determining their maritime security concerns. Moreover Asia-Pacific states which lying in a complex regional maritime geography. Climate change affects maritime security interests of Asia Pacific states by its further impacts namely, firstly, damage at marine environment causing damage at marine ecosystem, secondly, less adaptation of people in facing climate change causing chance to perpetrate unlawful acts and lastly, the loss of baselines caused by submerging coastline posing difficulties to claim maritime jurisdiction zones and potentially provoking maritime boundaries dispute.

¹ World Bank, Development and Climate Change, World Development report 2010, Washington, 2010, p.1.
² Australia’s Department of Defence, “Defending Australia in the Asia Pacific Century: Force 2030”, Defence White Paper 2009, available at http://www.defence.gov.au/whitepaper/
³ Ibid.
⁴ Charles Di Leva and Sachiko Morita, “Maritime Rights of Coastal States and Climate Change: Should States Adapt to Submerged Boundaries?, Law and Development Working Paper Series, no.5 April 2009, World Bank.
⁵ Geoffrey Till, Sea Power: A Guide for Twenty-First Century, Routledge, London, 2009, p.286.
⁶ Mike Harrison, Alberto Troccoli, Michael Coughlan, and Jim B.Williams, “Seasonal Forecasts in Decision Making”, in Albert Troccoli, Mike Harrison, David L.T. Anderson, Simon J.Mason, eds., Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk, Springer, Dordrectht, 2008, p. 18.
⁷ Ibid.
⁸ IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
⁹ Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) website, available at http://www.csiro.au/science/Climate-Change.html
¹⁰ Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) website, available at http://www.csiro.au/science/Climate-Change.html
¹¹ World Bank, Development and Climate Change, World Development report 2010, Washington, 2010, p. 2.
¹² Ibid., p. 1.
¹³ N.H. Ravindranath and Jayant A. Sathaye, Climate Change and Developing Countries, Kluwer Academic, Netherlands, 2002, p. 4.
¹⁴ The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), website, available at
http://www.ipcc.ch/organization/organization.htm
¹⁵ The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) website, available at http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/items/2627.php
¹⁶ World Bank, Development and Climate Change, World Development report 2010, Washington, 2010, p.4.
¹⁷ Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) website, available at http://www.csiro.au/science/Climate-Change.html
¹⁸ Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) website, available at http://www.csiro.au/science/Climate-Change.html
¹⁹ IPCC, 2007: “Summary for Policymakers”, in Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller., eds. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, p. 7.
²⁰ Parry, M.L., O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof and Co-authors 2007: “Technical Summary”, in M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, eds., Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, p. 27.
²¹ IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds.,: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 11-12.
²² Ibid., p.13.
²³ IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds.,: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, p.13
²⁴ Ibid.
²⁵ Ibid.
²⁶ Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Development Co-operation: Policy Guidance, OECD, 2009, p. 44.
²⁷ Ibid.
²⁸ Ibid.
²⁹ Dirk H.R. Spennemann, “Water futures and their influence on sovereignty in the Marshall Islands, in Devleena Ghosh, Heather Goodall and Stephanie Hemelryk Donald, eds., Water, Sovereignty and Borders in Asia and Oceania, Routledge, New York, 2009, p.62.
³⁰ The Hon Kevin Rudd MP, Prime Minister of Australia, Towards an Asia-Pacific Century, Speech to the Kokoda Foundation Australia-US Trilogy.
³¹ The Hon Stephen Smith MP, Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs, Speech on 14 August 2009 for the Griffith Asia Institute at the Gallery of Modern Art, Brisbane.
³² Arvind Kumar, “Nuclear Weapons and Missile Defences: The Maritime Dimension in the Asia-Pacific,” in Lawrence W. Prabhakar, Joshua H. Ho, Sam Bateman, eds., The Evolving Maritime Balance of Power in the Asia-Pacific: Maritime Doctrines and Nuclear Weapons at Sea, NTU and World Scientific, Singapore, p. 187.
³³ Chris Rahman, Maritime Security in the Asia-Pacific Region, Lecture on 17 Mar 2010, ANCORS, UOW.
³⁴ Ibid.
³⁵ IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds.,: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, p.11.
³⁶ Australian Government, Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, Climate Change and Great Barrier Reef, available at http://www.reefed.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/13401/Climate-Chang...
³⁷ Office of the High Representative for the Least Developed Countries, Landlocked Developing Countries and Small Island Developing States (UN-OHRLLS), The Impact of Climate Change on the Development Prospects of the Least Developed Countries and Small Island Developing States, 2009.
³⁸ Ibid.
³⁹ Ibid.
⁴⁰ Wayne K. Talley and Ethan M. Rule, “Piracy in Shipping”, in Wayne K. Talley, Maritime Safety, Security and Piracy, Informa, London, 2008, p. 89.
⁴¹ Robert C. Beckman, “The 1988 SUA Convention and 2005 SUA Protocol: Tools to Combat Piracy, Armed Robbery, and Maritime Terrorism,” in Rupert Herbert-Burns, Sam Bateman and Peter Lehr, eds., Lloyd’s MIU Handbook of Maritime Security, CRC Press, Boca Raton, 2009, p.189.
⁴² World Bank, Development and Climate Change, World Development report 2010, Washington, 2010, p.5.
⁴³ Charles Di Leva and Sachiko Morita, “Maritime Rights of Coastal States and Climate Change: Should States Adapt to Submerged Boundaries?, Law and Development Working Paper Series, no.5 April 2009, World Bank.
⁴⁴ Law of the Sea Convention (LOSC), article 5.
⁴⁵ Lilian Yamamoto and Miguel Esteban, “Vanishing Island States and Soverignty,” Ocean & Coastal Management, Vol. 53, Issue 1, January 2010, pp. 1-9.
⁴⁶ Ibid.
⁴⁷ Ibid.

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